Vacancy rate of logistics condominiums in Brazil is the lowest in a decade | Q3 2024
As the market continues to heat up, even after the COVID-19 pandemic, rental prices continue to rise. Compared to the second quarter alone, the average price rose by 5.0% in Brazil and 6.1% in São Paulo.
The market has exceeded expectations for 2024, so much so that in an optimistic scenario for the last quarter, we could have a new record for gross absorption. One of the indicators of the good moment in the market is that for the first time we have a vacancy rate below 9%. One of the factors that also contributed to the decline in vacancy was the postponement of the delivery of many condominiums to the fourth quarter of 2024 or 2025. With at least 70% of deliveries completed, vacancies are likely to rise again after three quarters of decline.
The third quarter of 2024 had the new lowest inventory in the last five periods, São Paulo, which is usually the state that expands the most in Brazil, had only 23,000 sqm of deliveries, which placed it only in the 5th place in the ranking of the quarter. The markets of Minas Gerais and Pernambuco were the most important with 126 thousand sqm and 83 thousand sqm of new inventory, respectively. While the vacancy rate in Minas Gerais increased due to the high volume of deliveries, the vacancy rate in Rio de Janeiro decreased due to the lack of new product in the market. The State of Minas Gerais already has 375 thousand sqm of new inventory in 2024 and practically already equals the best year in deliveries in history. The São Paulo market has accumulated a 2.8 p.p. drop in the vacancy rate in 2024, largely due to a reduction in its constructive activity.
